Moody’s Analytics and Allvue Launch Model to Predict Borrower Stress in Private Credit

By Moody’s Corporation Released Written 한국어로 보기
Moody’s Analytics and Allvue Launch Model to Predict Borrower Stress in Private Credit
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Moody’s Analytics and Allvue Systems have launched the Moody’s Analytics EDF-X Private Credit Model, a new credit risk model designed for private credit markets.

Key points

  • Moody’s Analytics and Allvue Systems launch EDF-X Private Credit Model
  • Model identifies early signs of borrower financial stress in private credit markets
  • Growth of private credit market projected to $4 trillion by 2030

Based on Moody's expertise and Allvue's data, this model identifies early signs of borrower financial stress, such as covenant waivers and payment-in-kind arrangements, before they result in missed payments or defaults.

With the projected growth of private credit to $4 trillion by 2030, this model helps investors and lenders gain earlier visibility into portfolio risks. Unlike public markets, private credit often lacks transparent data, making early risk detection crucial.

The model uses de-identified borrower performance data from Allvue to separately estimate the likelihood of hard and soft credit events, providing a comprehensive view of borrower credit risk specific to the asset class.

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